Category Archives: Cryptocurrency

Are we in a cryptocurrency bear market?

Great article from Reddit contributor, u/arsonbunny:

Why we won’t have a long term bear market, and how to systematically pick your future investments in crypto

With so much uncertainty right now it would be a good time to take some time to go over what happened recently and how to invest moving forward. We’ve seen a peak bubble at around 850 billion total market cap in the first week of January, consolidated down to $750 billion and have now just experienced a 40% correction.

First of all, you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top.

Different theories exist on why this happens (it’s actually the mirror opposite of the “January Effect” that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are:

1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs

2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year

While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:

Yet more scary news on China cracking down on crypto exchanges

Korea regulatory uncertainty

European governments talking about regulations

BTC futures contracts are now expiring this week, and possible manipulation there with contract hedging pushing the price down

~ Bitconnect Ponzi finally collapses

~ We had a new breed of speculators come in during the November/December timeframe after media made cryptocurrency mainstream following the Bitcoin 10K landmark. While cryptocurrency markets have always had too much hype, the latest rise wasn’t just over-enthusiasm in fundamentally sound cryptocurrencies like Monero and Ethereum, but mass inflows of fiat into vaporware and complete nonsense without any use case. Many people came in to essentially gamble on symbols on an exchange, and are thus short-term oriented and quick to sell on any slight downturn, which such further adds to selling pressure.

So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently, I don’t see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you’ll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we’ve already broken below 10K but I’m seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. I don’t expect us going below that support line anytime soon without any systematic breakdown. The fact we got closer to it is actually quite healthy in the long term because it is a valuation that can be logically justified using the cost factors of the mining network. In addition when I run a regression on the price history before the crazy Nov/December bull run, the first Fibonacci level seems to be just around $8000. So I think we should consistently move above that support level, possibly with a few weeks of fluctuations between the $9-$13K range.

Click here for complete article.

Factom (FCT) News Update

Heard on Reddit: “A number of projects working on various test networks will be coming online soon.” ~ Paul Snow, Chief Architect, Creator, and Founder at Factom (10/18/17)

Disclosure: I have owned FCT coins since August 2016. Current price is $15.15.

Top Cryptocurrencies to Invest In

Cryptocurrencies have quickly become an essential part of everybody’s portfolio. From being a risky asset that didn’t warrant more than a throwaway amount of money being invested in it, it is almost its own asset class. All of this has happened over a short few years, and it is expected that this trend will continue.

As with any investment, it is important you come to it with a sober mind. Your returns are more likely to be high the more you doubt your original thesis. That is to say, if you believe the first idea you come up with and never question it, you are going to lose money. To avoid these situations you should think about exactly why it is you think a cryptocurrency will go up.

Before you do this, it is probably necessary to point out there are two main types of cryptocurrency. There are the well-known coins that have reached some sort of mainstream acclaim, and then there are the alternative coins which fewer people have heard of. There is a high amount of risk in all types of cryptocurrency when compared with traditional blue chip stocks or cash, but the well-known currencies are less risky than the obscure ones. This is simply a matter of the network effects involved. Once a coin has achieved some sort of notoriety, it has “made it” in a sense. It still may fail due to poor engineering and a lack of real-world use, but it got the exposure necessary to catch on. This isn’t always true for alternative coins, which is why it was necessary to point it out.

VVToken Announces ICO to Make Electronic Financial Services More Accessible and Affordable

VVToken (VV),the company that created a financial solution designed to provide a broad spectrum of services to a diverse array of international users, today announced it will open an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) on December 5, 2017 to fund the final development and launch of its new blockchain consumer finance platform, CyberBank™.

VVToken will initially introduce two technology-based CyberBank™ products that will revolutionize electronic connectivity between fiat and cyber currencies. VVToken aims to raise up to 30 million in a token sale to deploy a platform offering payment security and mobile affordability that utilizes the security and reliability of the blockchain while delivering financial appreciation to the cardholder. For detailed information on VVToken’s ICO, visit and read the company’s white paper here.

Cryptocurrency: Waiting for Capitulation

Total Market Capitalization peaked around 115B on June 24, 2017 after a very steep ascent. It is now dropping  just as precipitously, currently down almost 50% off the high. Not only are we witnessing some real pain but the bottom at this point is still unknown. Can we fall 75% off the high, 80%? Worse case scenario, yes we could.

These are some contributing factors:

1. Bitcoin upgrade is a big unknown; if it splits, I think the market will react negatively. If it succeeds beautifully however, everyone breathes a big sigh of relief and the bull market continues.

2. ICOs are cashing in. Even established coins need to lock is fiat money to continue operations.

3. Ethereum is waiting for Metropolis. We need good news from somewhere.

When to know the bottom is in?

Capitulation is a good indicator.  Capitulation means to surrender, to throw your hands up and say, “I can’t take this anymore.” The pain of losing profit (or losing capital) becomes unbearable and the fearful will sell into the collapse. There will be a point where they will do it “en masse” and the volume will be great, that’s capitulation. My guess it happens around August 1st when the bitcoin fracas comes to a head.

Have some dollars ready, it will be a great buying opportunity.